Israel launched a ground offensive against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon on Tuesday in a marked escalation of tensions in the Middle East — and the energy markets largely shrugged. The indifference is significant because the Middle East is a huge producer of crude oil — pumping one-third of the world's supply — so any geopolitical tension in the region could spark some sort of meaningful price gain.

"The risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East are being offset by the prospect of production hikes from OPEC. Despite its efforts to stabilise the oil market, prices have remained under pressure," they added. OPEC+, which groups OPEC members and allies such as Russia, is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December.